China Banking Regulatory Commission’s efforts to rectify the bill business will affect the profit growth of small and medium-sized banks

After Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, warned about the risk of bills, the “storm of investigation” of the regulatory authorities on the illegal business of bills finally hit.
Recently, some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the CBRC has issued the notice on investigating the illegal bill business of rural small and medium-sized financial institutions to rectify the bill business. The objects of risk investigation are rural small and medium-sized financial institutions such as rural credit cooperatives, rural commercial banks, village banks, etc., while the inspection focuses on institutions with large amount of discount assets and liabilities, purchase and resale and sale of repurchase bills, as well as bill business with commercial banks as counterparties.
In this regard, industry analysis, this will affect the growth of small and medium-sized banks’ profits, but conducive to risk control.
Note “idle”
According to insiders, at present, the scale of bypass repo and bill financing of bills amounts to trillions, some illegal businesses can effectively avoid supervision, and the risk is relatively hidden. According to the latest research report of Ping An Securities, since 2012, the credit scale that may be concealed through the bill repurchase business in the bank’s buy back interbank account has risen to 1.2 trillion yuan from 300 billion yuan after supervision in 2011, or there is a large policy risk in the short term.
At the same time, bill financing is growing rapidly. Data from the central bank showed that as of April, the discounted bank acceptance bills had increased by 220.9 billion yuan, an increase of 193 billion yuan year on year. In the first quarter, the undiscounted bank acceptance bill increased by 674.4 billion yuan, an increase of 438.1 billion yuan year on year.
The explosive growth of bill financing is partly due to the “idling” of bills. Industry insiders said that deposit enterprises issue bank acceptance bills. After the bank bills are discounted, they issue acceptance bills with discounted funds as margin and discount the bank bills again. The bank reduces the discount rate to below the rediscount rate to earn the discount spread.
“Rural small and medium-sized financial institutions such as rural commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives, as class C households, pass bonds to large-scale securities companies and commercial banks, expand leverage and carry out interest transmission. Some idle businesses are doing very hard, exceeding their own deposit and loan businesses.” An industry researcher told reporters that at present, banks have replaced bills through a variety of innovative ways, concealing the situation of part of the credit scale. In the bill business, there may be regulatory arbitrage, repeated buying and selling of bills, secondary or multiple repurchases and other phenomena.
Another person in charge of relevant business of a joint-stock bank pointed out that “when the willingness of large and medium-sized banks to discount declines, the banks are either unwilling to discount, or reduce the occupation of credit resources through post transfer or repurchase after discount, while city commercial bank, rural credit cooperatives, rural commercial bank, etc. become the counterparties of post transfer and repurchase, and also become the main risk source of bill business.”
Regulatory “investigation”
The above report also pointed out that the CBRC specially “named” rural credit cooperatives and village banks in Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shandong and other provinces, “since this year, rural cooperative financial institutions and village banks in these provinces have violated regulations to carry out ticket business, disrupt the order of financial market, and form potential risks, which has also caused a greater negative impact. ”
According to the analysis of the insiders, this is the continuation of the policy to govern the illegal bills of rural credit cooperatives in 2011. In view of the investigation on the illegal discount bill loan activities of rural commercial banks / rural credit cooperatives, the CBRC sent letters in June 2011 and October 2012 respectively, requiring banks to pay attention to the risk of acceptance bill business.
For this investigation, Yang Weizhen, senior analyst of macro and fixed income of lianxun securities, said in an interview, “the purpose of this investigation by China Banking Regulatory Commission is to rectify the irregular behavior of rural banks and investigate risks. The short-term has a certain impact on the profits of rural small and medium-sized financial institutions, but it is conducive to their risk control. At the same time, it is conducive to the transformation of such financial institutions, and changes the previous mode of relying on the interbank. ”
Ping An Securities believes that under the static measurement, this supervision may have a negative impact on the bank’s net profit by 3-5 percentage points. In the next 2-3 months, during the period of bills due and centralized cashing, it will cause pressure on short-term liquidity. The scale of social financing will shrink by about 300-400 billion yuan. There is a small upward risk in the bill direct interest rate and money market interest rate.
According to the latest research report of Gaohua securities, the inspection notice of CBRC aims to further regulate the illegal operation of rural banks, such as assisting other banks in the securitization of discounted bill loans through bill repurchase or interbank assets. It has further negative impact on the liquidity of banks and small and medium-sized enterprises, and may reduce the growth rate of income of medium-sized banks.